Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
